Zoros Invest Fun

I have called myself as a value investor which focus on value of an assets rather than its price. However, short term and medium term of market is pretty hard to predict. Hence, it's wise to implement some technical analysis on analyzing the overall market condition, whether it's a bull, a bear or a kangaroo. From the monthly chart of KLCI, we can observe that, it seems like KLCI has formed a double top (highlighted in yellow) plus head and shoulder pattern (blue lines), which are the strong indication that the market has already formed its top! This means that, the market has higher risk at current position, and the recent strong bound, is assumed to be a dead cat bounce. Dead cat bounce is a temporary rally of stock price after a major correction (which happened on March 2020). This could be the last chance for investor to exit the market! However, that's just my assumption. Anything could happen in market. The subsequent market trend could be formed, either up or down, o

1. KLCI已经从3月的最低点 （1207）上涨接近400点，至6月10日的最高点，1590。 2. 而中间没有大幅度的回调。长期来看，股价走势是V型反转。 3. 最近也越来也多新手加入。从Bursa Malaysia发布的资料看，新opening of CDS account增加了很多。 4. 越来越多新手入场，代表市场已经过度乐观。因为就连没有什么经验的散户都敢入场，代表市场会加大这份乐观，而造成资产的错误估价。 5. Covid-19造成的经济破坏，没有反映在股价，反而股价却反映了复苏后的经济情况。 6. 200MA仍处于下跌趋势。KLCI需要筑底后才有向上反攻的机会。 7. 试想想，KLCI可能一直从1207直飞到1590，再往上直飞数百点吗？有可能，但机率真的很小很小。股市不只有上涨，还有下跌。健康的回调可以让股价日后再破新高，而飞太高的飞机，始终会坠落。 总结：KLCI仍处于弱势，有另一波大跌的可能。任何操作都是以做反弹为主，也就是见到不对立刻散，投资者真的需要慎重慎重再慎重。